Nikki Haley finally got to be the Trump alternative in N.H., then she refused to take on Trump.

On Tuesday, she’ll pay the price

January 21, 2024

“You only get one shot; do not miss your chance to blow; the opportunity comes once in a lifetime, yo.” Eminem, Lose Yourself

Nikki Haley’s toughest ad of her campaign was not a takedown of Donald Trump, her opponent, but one that mocked President Joe Biden, playing audio of him stammering before Haley’s voiceover declared, “Biden is just too old,” and “he won’t make it” to the end of his second term, adding “… and then Kamala Harris will be president.

So much for “moving on from Trump,” as she likes to say. Even the ex-president might balk at predicting the president will soon be dead.

Throughout the summer, the fall, even most of January, there’s one politician Haley would not criticize for all but a few days of the campaign: yes, Trump. Until recently, her harshest words were, “Chaos seems to follow him.” (Note to Ambassador Haley: Trump is the chaos.)

But sometime on Wednesday night, when she briefly left New Hampshire, it must have dawned on her that her alleged January surge in New Hampshire stalled at about 35 percent while Trump kept edging upward. Sunday morning’s Globe/Suffolk University tracking poll has Trump at 55, Haley at 36 percent.

No wonder we’ve seen Haley flailing away the past few days, trying to distance herself. She softened her pledge to pardon Trump, accused him of lying about her, and said she wouldn’t be his running mate (believe it when you don’t see it.)

Then she seized on Trump appearing confused at a rally Friday night, mixing up Haley with Nancy Pelosi. The candidate who had danced around her opponent all summer and fall was now hitting him in a most personal way, saying he was “mentally unfit.” As if that were not harsh enough, she inexplicably dragged her parents into it.

“My parents are up in age, and I love them dearly,” Haley said. “But when you see them hit a certain age, there is a decline. That’s a fact — ask any doctor, there is a decline.”

Her parents are probably wondering just how dearly she loves them. But back to Trump.

Haley will accuse Trump of anything except what he is: a malevolent force in American politics who tried to overturn an election, then cheered the sacking of the Capitol, and in the last few months has made chilling remarks about doing away with the constitution and establishing a dictatorship.

It’s been apparent for weeks that Haley had only one way to become the Republican nominee — to win New Hampshire and then carry that momentum into a South Carolina victory, thus destroying Trump’s veneer of invincibility. After that, it would be anyone’s ballgame.

“Trump’s whole con is built upon being Superman,” veteran Republican consultant Mike Murphy told the New York Times this past week. “If he loses twice, three if you count Biden in 2020, it is kryptonite for him.”

Some might find that fanciful thinking, but when Trump “lost” the 2020 midterms, he fell so far in national polls that Ron DeSantis, who withdrew today, had the lead. Losing is a bad look for a supposed strong man.

“Beating Donald Trump is not easy,” Betsy Ankeny, Haley’s campaign manager, said on Saturday. “He is a juggernaut. But how do you eat an elephant? One bite at a time.”

Ms. Ankeny seems to be suggesting a long, drawn-out affair. But we should assume she knows better. Taking down the elephant requires two clean shots — wins in the Granite State and the Palmetto State.

Why Haley is in trouble in New Hampshire

While Haley was enjoying her real surge — which took place in September through December, when she went from 11 to 30 percent — the Trump team began hammering her with ads showing her flip-flopping on gas taxes, cozying up to Biden on border policy, and advocating an increase in the social security age to 70. The Trump campaign slammed the door on any Haley effort to woo registered Republicans, conservatives, and men. And her campaign seemed to have no response.

The Trump strategy worked. He has an iron grip on those groups (a little less so with men), and they are not changing their minds. Haley has some support from conservatives, which is why she could outpoll Chris Christie, who had none. But it’s not enough, as evidenced by this chart from this morning’s Globe poll:

If this were a closed primary, Haley would be cooked. But it’s not, and her only route to victory would be to lock up undeclared votes at the same level that Trump has secured Republicans. And as of Saturday night, when the Boston Globe poll was finalized, she was nowhere near that. And a look at some critical demographic subgroups tells you why:

Securing 58 percent of moderates, about a third of the vote, is promising, but she can’t afford to be at or under 50 in most other categories.

Haley should have seized this anti-Trump energy

The chart below shows that almost half of Haley’s vote comes from those prioritizing a Trump defeat, suggesting there’s energy for an anti-Trump message.

This question is an imperfect way to capture how many anti-Trump voters are out there, but these numbers suggest quite a few. If Haley had taken on Trump earlier, she might have built enthusiasm within that group for going to the polls and voting for her. In 2008, John McCain memorably salvaged his campaign by winning New Hampshire with the help of independents. And, according to Republican pollster Patrick Rufinni, in 2012, when Barack Obama was the only name on the Democratic ballot, interest shifted significantly to the GOP primary. Forty-nine percent of the voters were Republicans, 47 percent were independents, and 4 percent were Democrats. Haley needs at least that mix if not more independents.

Is a late rally for Haley possible? Doubtful

If you’re wondering about a comeback, here’s a hint: N.H. Governor Chris Sununu, Haley’s biggest supporter in the state, told Meet the Press today that the real voting begins on Super Tuesday in March, an apparent effort to minimize the impact of a Haley loss Tuesday.

New Hampshire may have enough pent-up anti-Trump energy ready to rush polling sites for Haley now that she’s finally criticizing Trump. One of her closing ads pares Biden and Trump, calling them too old and too much about the past. But she still won’t say that Donald Trump is not fit to be president or that the chaos “that follows him” is too much for America to bear. Such a line of argument may be anathema in other states, but it was a viable strategy in New Hampshire. If it worked there, it could have propelled her to further wins and perhaps ultimately to the nomination.

But she didn’t. She ignored Eminem’s plea: “You get one shot, do not miss your opportunity…”