Why You Should Watch New Hampshire Tonight
The results are pivotal, and we might know by prime time
By Mark Horan
As all eyes are on Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Nevada tonight, don’t forget New Hampshire.
Insiders assume Senator Maggie Hassan will defeat her challenger, a far-right Republican and former Army general, Don Bolduc. New Hampshire won by both Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, is arguably the least “reddish” state of all the purple states with critical Senate races tonight (add Arizona and Wisconsin to the list above.)
At the same time, registered voters in New Hampshire are evenly split among Democrats, Republicans, and undeclared. And Republican Governor Chris Sununu is cruising to victory. It hardly sounds like fertile ground for an ultra-conservative, too, but if we believe the polls taken in the last two weeks Bolduc has pulled even with Hassan.
Keep your eye on the Granite State tonight because:
It could produce the earliest Senate results of the night. New Hampshire voting closes at 7 pm Eastern Standard Time, and officials could tabulate the results earlier than in other states that close at 7 pm.
The polls could be correct; it could be very close. The tightening of the polls suggests something is afoot, though it may be no more than Republican voters finding their candidate. Bolduc was an unknown as recently as June, and his support in New Hampshire Institute of Politics/St. Anselm College surveys jumped from 43 percent in late September to 48 percent last week.
We’re living through an era when every race is Satan vs. The Devil. When voters were asked in the St. Anselm poll if they had a favorable or unfavorable view of each candidate, 43 percent had a “strongly unfavorable” view of Hassan, 43 percent gave Bolduc a “strongly unfavorable” rating. Each candidate was rated “somewhat unfavorable” by fewer than 10 percent.
There is no middle ground when sizing up the other candidate these days. Like shirts and skins at the playground, once you’re on the shirts team, you hate anyone on skins. Except this isn’t Saturday morning basketball, it’s democracy and the rigidity is baked in right now. If the polls took an accurate snap shot, it’s unlikely the election will turn out much differently when the votes are counted.
Nonetheless, the outcome could be different from what the polls found. Two factors could produce a blowout — or at least a comfortable win for one of the candidates.
A surge of disgruntled men: Like most of the close Senate races, there is a sizable gender gap. Men favor Bolduc 57–38. Women favor Hassan, 56–39.
And men and women have different priorities. Most men name the economy their number one issue; women are split pretty evenly between the economy and abortion or the plight of our democracy. Inflation and the state’s pro-business, anti-tax tradition could equal a surge of men going to vote for Bolduc. In his final campaign ad, Bolduc, wearing a windbreaker with a law enforcement badge, ends a speech by shouting “Live free or die,” the state’s longtime conservative libertarian mantra. The vibe is protest and toughness; it jibes with men pissed off about the economy and Biden.
A deluge of angry women, ready to get even: Women’s anger over the Supreme Court and its elimination of Roe v. Wade has spurred high turnout in other elections, notably in Kansas this past summer. A record number of voters turned out on a scorchingly hot August Tuesday to reject a constitutional amendment that would have paved the way for a statewide abortion ban. It wasn’t close — 69 percent against, 51 in favor.
Could New Hampshire see such a wave? Experts believe the issue has lost some punch as we move further away from June 24, the day the court ruled. But it persists as the second or third most important issue in the contested states, including New Hampshire. Tonight, if Democrats are doing well in any of the quite red New Hampshire towns along the Massachusetts border, especially in the southeast, it could be an early sign that women came out to vote in large numbers.
A close NH result or a loss doesn’t necessarily mean a disaster for Democrats. It surely makes the road to maintaining the Senate much more difficult, since the Democrats will need and extra win from the other states. But it may not portend trouble across the board.
Each of these Senate races has quirky candidates (putting it generously), with electorates polarized around party and gender. So each candidate must navigate through some heavy surf to win. NH is no different. Hassan started the race with negative job approval numbers — a product partly of the national environment. If she survives, even by a couple of points, I’m not sure it suggests much more than what we know — Dems are voting for Dems, Republicans for Republicans, and the small number in the middle may split since they are split evenly between men and women. Whoever does the best job energizing their supporters wins the election.
If Bolduc loses…A loss for the political novice will demonstrate that there is a ceiling in a purple state for a tough guy persona, combined with a history of doubting the 2020 results and celebrating the end of Roe v. Wade. Since the primary, he has walked back his abortion and election-denial positions, but for voters what’s done is done on those issues. Meanwhile, he has doubled down on his blustery tone and military swagger, to the delight of his supporters, including men who are less conservative but embrace the act. It feels good when you’re among fans, General Bolduc, but it often restricts the number of fans you have.
If Hassan loses… If she loses, she should rue the day she sacrificed abortion for her habitual centrism. As the campaign reached its final weeks, Hassan reverted to a message of fiscal conservatism and bipartisanship. This combination helped make her governor and allowed her to leap to the Senate. Her advertising has focused on each and other economic accomplishments, including her efforts to bring manufacturing back to the state, a puzzling choice, given that NH long ago lost much of its manufacturing base.
Unfortunately for Hassan, the days of touting centrism may be gone. Her insistence on making that her focal point produced this: the evaporation of her 10-point lead. She has now shifted her message to lowering prescription drugs, an example of saving folks money on her watch but a relatively weak palliative for voters sick of spiraling gas and food prices.
She used abortion as a cudgel against Bolduc, but that’s different from rallying the troops to ensure he never gets a chance to vote for a nationwide abortion ban — or for curtailing any other women’s rights. A surge of men voting for Bolduc, if it occurs, could have been pre-empted by a deluge of women voting for Hassan.
So, if Hassan’s race is close or a loss, don’t immediately assume it’s a big night for the GOP everywhere. It’s just one close race eked out by a roguish newcomer, talking tough in a famously prickly environment — the Granite State.
